Looking backwards / moving forwards

There are a couple of key things to take away from last night. 1) It’s obvious that Kerry O’Brien absolutely loathes Antony Green, and 2) I’m only marginally more cynical about the Australian voting public than was reflected in last night’s count.

I got a lot more right than I did wrong, so let’s tally up the results, even though there are still a few seats being counted and I’m sure the Independents and the Greens’ Adam Bandt are going to be getting a shitload of phone calls today.

ACT
Canberra
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Fraser
Labor retain. =====> Correct. The Greens’ candidate polled almost 20% of the primary vote; they’ll be very pleased with that result.

NSW
Banks
Labor retain. =====> Too close to call at this stage. It’s going down to individual preferences.

Barton
Labor retain. =====> Correct. Another double-digit primary vote to the Greens, this time with just over 10%.

Bennelong
Liberal gain. =====> Correct.

Berowra
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Blaxland
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Bradfield
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Calare
Nationals retain. =====> Correct.

Charlton
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Chifley
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Cook
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Cowper
Nationals retain. =====> Correct.

Cunningham
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Dobell
Liberal gain. =====> Incorrect. Unless something drastic changes during the preference distribution, this one is going to be a Labor retain.

Eden-Monaro
Liberal gain. =====> Incorrect. This one will definitely go to the wire, but more and more is looking like a Labor retain.

Farrer
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Fowler
Labor retain. =====> Correct. Despite suffering a MASSIVE 14% swing of the primary vote, this is a Labor retain.

Gilmore
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Grayndler
Labor retain. =====> Too close to call. With the Greens taking the 2nd spot on the two-party preferred, this one could very well swing Green.

Greenway
Liberal retain. =====> Too close to call.

Hughes
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Hume
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Hunter
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Kingsford Smith
Labor retain. =====> Correct. Another big turnout for the Greens, polling just over 11% of the primary vote.

Lindsay
Liberal gain. =====> Too close to call.

Lyne
Independent retain. =====> Correct.

Macarthur
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Mackellar
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Macquarie
Liberal gain. =====> Too close to call. Almost 14% of the vote to the Greens here.

McMahon
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Mitchell
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

New England
Independent retain. =====> Correct.

Newcastle
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

North Sydney
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Page
Nationals gain. =====> Incorrect.

Parkes
Nationals retain. =====> Correct.

Parramatta
Liberal gain. =====> Incorrect. It’s going to come down to second and third preferences, but it’s more than likely to be a Labor retain.

Paterson
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Reid
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Richmond
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Riverina
Nationals retain. =====> Correct.

Robertson
Liberal gain. =====> Too close to call. The final count for this one will be needed, but Labor are in front by a nose at the moment.

Shortland
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Sydney
Labor retain. =====> Correct. Although with 23% of the vote, the Greens were not the 2PP as I had suggested.

Throsby
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Warringah
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Watson
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Wentworth
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Werriwa
Labor retain. =====> Correct. Another big showing for the Greens here, with over 12% of the primary vote.

NT
Lingiari
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Solomon
Country Liberal gain. =====> Correct.

QLD
Blair
Liberal-National gain. =====> Incorrect.

Bonner
Liberal-National gain. =====> Correct.

Bowman
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

Brisbane
Labor retain. =====> Incorrect. with a 20% primary vote for the Greens, the Lib-Nats will take over Brisbane.

Capricornia
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Dawson
Liberal-National gain. =====> Correct.

Dickson
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

Fadden
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

Fairfax
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct. And an 18% primary vote to the Greens.

Fisher
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

Flynn
Liberal-National gain. =====> Correct.

Forde
Liberal-National gain. =====> Correct.

Griffith
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Groom
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

Herbert
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

Hinkler
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

Kennedy
Independent retain. =====> Correct.

Leichhardt
Liberal-National gain. =====> Correct.

Lilley
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Longman
Liberal-National gain. =====> Correct.

Maranoa
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

McPherson
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

Moncrieff
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

Moreton
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Oxley
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Petrie
Liberal-National gain. =====> Incorrect.

Rankin
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Ryan
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

Wide Bay
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

Wright
Liberal-National retain. =====> Correct.

SA
Adelaide
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Barker
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Boothby
Liberal retain. =====> Correct. This one is still very close, but the Liberals will most likely get over the line.

Grey
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Hindmarsh
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Kingston
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Makin
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Mayo
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Port Adelaide
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Sturt
Labor gain. =====> Incorrect. I should have known better. Pyne is notorious for running hard and personal campaigns where he gets out among the voters.

Wakefield
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

TAS
Bass
Liberal gain. =====> Incorrect. I completely underestimated the Labor vote in Tassie.

Braddon
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Denison
Labor retain. =====> Too close to call. Independent Andrew Wilkie has a good chance to get up here.

Franklin
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Lyons
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

VIC
Aston
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Ballarat
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Batman
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Bendigo
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Bruce
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Calwell
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Casey
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Chisholm
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Corangamite
Liberal gain. =====> Too close to call.

Corio
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Deakin
Labor gain. =====> Correct. Although I called this a Labor gain, not a Labor retain.

Dunkley
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Flinders
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Gellibrand
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Gippsland
Nationals retain. =====> Correct.

Goldstein
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Gorton
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Higgins
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Holt
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Hotham
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Indi
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Isaacs
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Jagajaga
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Kooyong
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

La Trobe
Labor gain. =====> Correct.

Lalor
Labor retain. =====> Correct. Bogans love having the Prime Minster in their seat. A plus 4% swing to Labor.

Mallee
Nationals retain. =====> Correct.

Maribyrnong
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

McEwen
Labor gain. =====> Correct.

McMillan
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Melbourne
Greens gain. 2PP Greens/Labor. =====> Correct. 36& of the primary vote for the Greens.

Melbourne Ports
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Menzies
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Murray
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Scullin
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Wannon
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Wills
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Well, at least it looks like I know what I’m talking about in Victoria.

WA
Brand
Liberal gain. =====> Incorrect.

Canning
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Cowan
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Curtin
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Durack
Liberal gain. =====> Correct.

Forrest
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Fremantle
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Hasluck
Liberal gain. =====> Too close to call. Will wait for the final count to come in on this one.

Moore
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

O’Connor
Liberal retain. =====> Incorrect. Wilson Tuckey lost to the National candidate. Amazing result.

Pearce
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Perth
Labor retain. =====> Correct.

Stirling
Labor gain. =====> Incorrect.

Swan
Labor gain. =====> Incorrect.

Tangney
Liberal retain. =====> Correct.

Which leave us with a grand total of:

Correct : 127
Incorrect : 14
Indetermined : 9

Not bad overall I suppose. I’m glad to have been proven wrong about what I’d seen as an impending Abbott Government. Perhaps I’ll have to dial my cynicism about the typical Australian voter back a little after this.